The economic conditions shaping which vehicles enter collision repair bays shifted slightly in April, as new-vehicle affordability declined on higher transaction prices, rising loan rates, and lower manufacturer incentives, according to the Cox Automotive/Moody's Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index published May 18.
The index rose to 35.2 weeks of median income needed to purchase the average new vehicle, up from a revised 34.9 in March. The Kelley Blue Book average transaction price increased 0.7% to $49,461, while the estimated average auto loan rate rose 9 basis points to 9.45%. The typical monthly new-vehicle payment rose 1.3% month over month to $757.
What the numbers mean for shops
The index edged higher in April after two consecutive months of improvement, according to Cox Automotive's Q1 2026 Industry Insights data. The CCC Intelligent Solutions Crash Course 2026 report identified affordability pressure as a contributing factor to the aging of the U.S. vehicle fleet, with direct consequences for collision repair volume.
Despite the monthly softening, affordability remained better than a year ago, according to Cox Automotive. Transaction prices were 1.8% higher year over year, but loan rates were lower by 21 basis points, incentives were higher by 3.5%, and household incomes were up 4%. Monthly payments were 1% higher than April 2025, while the number of weeks of median income required to purchase a new vehicle fell 2.8% year over year, according to Cox Automotive.
The monthly payment peak of $795 was reached in December 2022. The April figure of $757 is 4.9% below that level, and the index has improved 16.9% from its all-time high.
Fleet Age and Total Loss Implications
When consumers are priced out of new vehicles, they hold onto existing ones longer, a trend that CCC Intelligent Solutions has identified as building for several years. U.S. light vehicles averaged 12.8 years in age in 2025, with projections pointing to 13 years in 2026, according to the CCC Intelligent Solutions Crash Course 2026 report. Vehicles seven years and older account for more than 70% of total loss valuations, meaning the older the fleet, the more borderline repair decisions shift toward total loss.
Rising wholesale used-vehicle values, tracked in the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which rose 6.2% year over year in March, work in the opposite direction, pushing the actual cash value of older vehicles upward and keeping more borderline claims in the repairable category. Those wholesale gains were confirmed at the retail level when used-vehicle retail prices reached approximately $25,500 in mid-April, rising roughly $1,500 in a single month.
The dual pressure of unaffordable new vehicles and elevated used-vehicle prices has also pushed consumers toward older models and hybrid powertrains. CarGurus data showed new hybrid retail sales grew 33% in 2025, and Mitchell's Q1 2026 Plugged-In: EV Collision Insights report confirmed that mild hybrid collision claims hit a record 5.69% share of U.S. repairable claims, a 25% year-over-year increase.
What the Outlook Means for Shops
The broader consumer outlook remains cautious. Consumer confidence fell to a record low in April, with buying conditions for vehicles worsening specifically. Cox Automotive had noted in its 2026 vehicle sales forecast that affordability concerns would continue pushing buyers toward the used market, and that the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was projected to rise 2% by year-end under normal depreciation trends, a figure the March wholesale data has already exceeded.
