The U.S. auto industry is contending with a structural shift in consumer demand that is reshaping the fleet collision shops work on every day. Roughly one million prospective new-car buyers have exited the market since the start of the decade, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis published May 27, and industry analysts do not expect them to return soon.
Major manufacturers including General Motors, Ford Motor, and Toyota have said they are planning for new-vehicle sales to shrink or stagnate in 2026, as consumers push back against average transaction prices that have climbed to around $50,000, according to the Journal. Persistent inflation, rising fuel costs, and elevated interest rates are cited as the primary forces keeping buyers out of showrooms.
For collision repairers, the downstream effect is a vehicle fleet that is getting older, staying on the road longer, and arriving at shops with a more complex and variable repair profile than at any point in the past decade.
A Fleet That Keeps Aging
The Journal cited S&P Global data showing the average vehicle on U.S. roads is now about 13 years old, a record high. S&P Global Mobility's most recent published analysis puts the figure at 12.8 years as of 2025, with CCC Intelligent Solutions projecting the average will reach 13 years in 2026. The average age of passenger cars specifically has climbed to 14.5 years, while light trucks stand at 11.9 years, according to S&P Global Mobility.
That shift is registering in collision repair data. The share of repairable vehicles aged seven years or older has increased nine percentage points since 2019, per CCC's Crash Course report. CCC's 2026 Crash Course report, "Complexity Compounds," adds that as of Q3 2025, there are 12 million fewer vehicles six years old or newer in operation compared to 2020, and 28.3% of repairable estimates now include calibrations. As previously reported by Autobody News, the share of repairable collision claims for vehicles six years old or newer fell to 58.3% in 2025, down from over 67% in 2020.
Sales Volumes Remain Well Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
Before 2020, Americans were buying approximately 17 million cars and trucks per year, according to the Journal. Industry analysts do not expect the market to return to that level until the end of the decade or later, per the Journal, and J.D. Power's full-year 2026 forecast projects 16.3 million total new-vehicle sales. John Murphy, a longtime auto analyst and corporate adviser quoted in the Journal, said he no longer believes the 17-million-unit level will return, and that reaching it would require a large surge in vehicles available for less than $40,000, which he said does not appear to be in the cards.
J.D. Power's April 2026 forecast puts the seasonally adjusted annualized rate at 16.0 million units, with average finance payments climbing to a record $812 per month and the share of trade-in customers carrying negative equity rising to 31.3%.
Automakers Profitable at Lower Volume; Incentives Unlikely
One dynamic that distinguishes the current period from past sales slowdowns is that manufacturers are not responding with aggressive discounting. GM and Ford are generating solid profits selling fewer, higher-priced vehicles, according to the Journal — a shift that took hold during the supply chain shortages of 2020 and 2021.
Ivan Drury, an Edmunds automotive analyst, told the Journal: "I don't want to say automakers are OK with this level of sales, but they kind of are. It's not like back in the day when they'd be hacking away at the price to lift sales."
Patrick Manzi, chief economist of the National Automobile Dealers Association, voiced a longer-term concern to the Journal: "I don't think there's a dealer in this country who would say 'I don't want a more-affordable product to offer.' For now, things are going well. But what happens if we hit another recession?"
Stellantis, Ford and GM have all signaled plans for more affordable models in coming years, according to the Journal, but none predict significant relief soon.
Compounding Pressures: Tariffs, Used-Car Prices, and Claims Volume
The article notes that automakers are paying billions annually in tariffs under the Trump administration's trade policies, with Ford incurring approximately $2 billion in tariff costs last year. Those costs are contributing to the same price environment keeping buyers out of the market. For collision shops, tariffs carry a parallel burden at the parts level. As Autobody News has reported, Section 232 tariffs on auto parts could affect up to 44% of collision parts sold in the U.S., with additional inclusion windows scheduled for July and October 2026.
Consumers priced out of new vehicles are finding used-car prices similarly elevated, according to the Journal. Many are choosing to hold their current vehicles longer. Retail used-vehicle prices reached approximately $25,500 in mid-April 2026, up roughly $1,500 in a single month, according to Autobody News. Rising actual cash values shift total loss thresholds, potentially keeping more borderline vehicles in the repairable column.
The claims data reflects all of it. Repairable claims fell 9.7% in 2025 across all coverages, total loss frequency hit a record 23.1%, and consumer confidence reached a record low in April 2026, according to the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers — compounding affordability-driven shifts in insurance behavior that have reduced the volume of claims entering shops. The vehicles that do arrive are increasingly older and more technically demanding: mild hybrid collision claims rose 21% year over year in Q2 2025, according to Mitchell International data.
