Wholesale used-vehicle values, a figure that factors into shops' total-loss decisions, posted their first month-over-month decline since the spring rebound in early July, even as electric vehicles reached the largest share of Cox Automotive's Manheim index on record, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.
Wholesale values factor directly into insurers' actual cash value calculations, the figure used to help determine whether a damaged vehicle is repaired or declared a total loss. Total loss frequency reached a record 23.1% of all claims in 2025, according to CCC Intelligent Solutions' Crash Course 2026 report, a trend shops have watched closely as it shrinks the pool of repairable work reaching their bays.
Index posts first monthly decline since March peak
The index fell to 211.5, a 0.6% decrease on a mix-, mileage- and seasonally adjusted basis in the first 15 days of July compared to June. The index had peaked in March, driven by a strong tax-refund selling season, and had been gradually normalizing since, holding roughly flat in June before this month's pullback.
Wholesale values remain 2% higher than July 2025. On a non-adjusted basis, prices declined 1.9% from June and were up 2.4% year over year, a steeper half-month drop than the 0.7% average decline Cox Automotive has historically recorded for the full month of July.
Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive, said the pullback reflects the market "correcting itself back to normal" after a strong and prolonged spring rebound, with the index still running 2% above last year's level even as summer depreciation trends run a bit higher than usual.
Affordability pressure and EV demand shape the market
Robb said older, more affordable vehicles are holding value better as budget-strapped consumers shop for cheaper used cars to offset rising costs elsewhere in the economy. At the same time, interest in used EVs is building, with the segment now accounting for more than 4% of all units driving the Manheim index, the highest share Cox Automotive has recorded.
The EV Index rose 12.4% year over year, though it slipped 0.4% from June. The Non-EV Index was up 1.1% year over year and down 0.5% from June. Compact cars and EVs posted the strongest year-over-year gains, while SUVs and pickups saw declines against last year's levels.
Retention and sales conversion run above historical norms
Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices for the Three-Year-Old Index fell 1.1% since the start of July, a steeper drop than the same period last year, when tariff impacts had supported higher wholesale values. MMR retention averaged 99.4% in the first half of July, up 0.2 percentage points year over year and flat from June. Sales conversion averaged 55.1%, down 1 percentage point year over year and 1.7 percentage points from June.
Wholesale supply continues to build
Wholesale vehicle supply reached 28 days as of July 15, roughly 1.5 days higher than a year ago, as rising off-lease inventory has outpaced the modest pickup in sales, according to the report.
With gas prices climbing again, Robb said he expects steady interest in fuel-efficient vehicles as consumers look for ways to offset stretched budgets heading into the back half of the year.
