Wholesale used-vehicle prices, a figure collision repair shops track for its effect on total loss decisions, grew at a slower year-over-year pace in June than earlier in 2026, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index published by Cox Automotive.
The index rose to 212.9 in June, up 2.1% from a year earlier and 0.1% from May, according to the report. On a non-adjusted basis, wholesale prices were up 2.9% year over year and down 1.3% from May. The year-over-year gain marked a slowdown from May's 3.6% increase, according to Jonathan Gregory, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive.
"I'd caution against reading too much into the softer year-over-year print: the deceleration from May's 3.6% to June's 2.1% is mostly a base effect, as we're now lapping last June, when values were still climbing on tariff-induced demand," Gregory said in the trends report.
The index's mid-June reading showed 2.6% year-over-year growth, compared with 2.1% for the full month.
First half closed roughly 1% below March's peak
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index peaked in March, driven by a strong tax-refund selling season, and has since normalized to sit about 1% below that high, Gregory said in the trends report.
Retail used-vehicle prices have followed wholesale trends higher, rising to nearly $27,000 in recent weeks, according to Cox Automotive. That builds on May's average listing price of $26,918, which was the highest level since mid-2023 at that time.
"The first half of the year is officially in the books, and wholesale values finished on solid footing," Gregory said in the press release. He said the softer June gains largely reflect tougher comparisons against last summer rather than a meaningful shift in market conditions. "The bigger picture remains one of balance," Gregory said. "Dealer demand at Manheim is still running above historical norms, wholesale supply remains within seasonal ranges, and the market has settled into a much more normal pattern following an unusually strong spring."
Used EVs outperform but remain a small share of the market
The Electric Vehicle Index within the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 12% year over year and 1.7% from May in June, outpacing the Non-EV Index, which increased 1.7% year over year and 0.2% from May, according to the trends report. Despite that growth, used EVs accounted for less than 4% of Manheim's total sales volume, the press release said.
"Used EVs continue to outperform the broader market," Gregory said in the press release. "We're seeing a wider variety of EVs return from lease, helping provide dealers and retail shoppers more options than they had just a few years ago. That broader availability is helping demand remain resilient even as supply grows."
Analysts point to off-lease EV supply as the key second-half variable
Gregory identified a growing supply of off-lease vehicles, particularly EVs, as the primary risk to specific market segments in the second half of 2026, even if the overall Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index holds steady. He noted that falling gasoline prices could also reduce EV demand as more used units become available, according to the trends report.
Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive, described the broader trend as one of normalization.
"The strong spring driven by tax-refund activity pushed values higher, but recent MUVVI data shows the market settling back into a more typical seasonal pattern," Robb said in the press release. "As off-lease volumes increase and supply improves, we expect the market to remain healthy, balanced and supported by steady dealer demand."
Cox Automotive said its year-end outlook remains unchanged, with the index still expected to finish 2026 approximately 2% higher than year-end 2025 levels, according to the press release. Rental vehicle prices were up 1.2% year over year in June but fell 0.1% from May, the trends report said.
