Wholesale used-vehicle values dropped below year-ago levels in September for the first time this year, while the least fuel-efficient vehicles posted the steepest value declines of 2026, according to Cox Automotive's third-quarter Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index report.
Used-vehicle values factor into total loss decisions, which insurers base on a vehicle's actual cash value drawn from comparable vehicles in the local market, according to a September review of used-vehicle pricing data. The share of claims flagged as total losses reached a record 23.1% across all loss categories, according to CCC Intelligent Solutions' 2026 Crash Course report.
The index finished September at 205.9, adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality. That reading was 0.6% lower than a year earlier and 1.1% lower than August, according to Cox Automotive's September data. Unadjusted wholesale prices fell 1.2% year over year and 1.3% month over month. The September drop followed a mid-August reading in which the index nearly matched year-ago levels.
Cox Automotive now projects the index will end 2026 up about 0.2% year over year, according to its Oct. 7 press release. The company had forecast a 2% gain in July. The new projection falls below the index's 0.4% gain in 2025 and its 2.3% long-term average.
"We are in the weakest season for wholesale valuations, and as September closed, depreciation was steeper than we typically see this time of year," said Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive, in the release. "The first half of the year actually showed more appreciation than usual, even in the face of higher fuel prices. But with the conflict in the Middle East ongoing, diesel prices at record highs, and interest rates climbing rapidly, increasingly worrying both businesses and consumers, wholesale prices have felt the sting."
Fuel economy splits wholesale values
Cox Automotive grouped gas, diesel, and hybrid vehicles by fuel economy rating and tracked how their wholesale values have changed since the start of 2026, leaving battery-electric models out. Vehicles rated below 15 mpg lost 15% of their value over that period, and those rated 15 to 19 mpg lost almost 9%, according to Jonathan Gregory, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights, in the report.
Over the same stretch, vehicles rated 35 to 39 mpg gained 3.7%, and those at 40 mpg or higher gained almost 10%.
Compared with a year earlier, SUVs were down 3.4%, sedans were down 3.3%, and pickups were down 2.3%, Gregory said. Values for electric vehicles rose 4.3% year over year, while non-EV values fell 1.6%.
Gregory attributed that pattern to three overlapping factors:
- Higher financing costs, which hit pricier SUVs and pickups hardest.
- Added supply of younger SUVs from rental fleets and lease returns.
- Fuel prices.
Gas prices climbed from below $3 a gallon in February to about $4.50 by late September, according to Mark Strand, Cox Automotive's deputy chief economist.
Diesel vehicles accounted for just over 3% of wholesale inventory, according to the release. With diesel prices at record highs, their days' supply reached 39, an increase of 27% from a year earlier.
Older vehicles hold value as younger units soften
Younger vehicles have lost the most value, while older and lower-priced units have held up better, Gregory said. As of late August, 9- and 10-year-old vehicles were holding values roughly six points above their long-term averages.
Vehicles 10 years old or older made up about 24% of Manheim's wholesale sales through the third quarter, compared with 19% in 2019, according to Scott Vanner, manager of Economic and Industry Insights. Vehicles between seven and 12 years old represented nearly 41% of total loss valuations in 2025, according to CCC's Crash Course 2026 report.
No September hurricane and rising lease returns
This was the first September in decades without an Atlantic hurricane, according to the release. Cox Automotive said the lack of the demand that typically follows a storm may have contributed to steeper-than-normal depreciation.
Off-lease supply is climbing from roughly 190,000 units a month in the first half of 2026 to about 220,000 a month in the second half, according to the release. Lease equity, the gap between a vehicle's wholesale value and its lease residual, fell to about negative $1,700 in September, Gregory said. That was the lowest reading in Cox Automotive's data, which goes back to 2022. When equity is negative, the vehicle is more likely to be turned in and sent to auction rather than bought out, he said.
Updated forecast and fourth-quarter outlook
Cox Automotive raised its 2026 forecast for total used-vehicle sales to 38.5 million units, including 20.5 million retail sales, according to the release. It projects wholesale volume of about 11.8 million units, up less than 1% from 2025.
Heading into the fourth quarter, the company is watching rising interest rates, falling consumer sentiment, and the Middle East conflict. It identified the aging U.S. vehicle fleet as a potential source of support.
"Taken together, we're entering Q4 with our antennas up," Robb said. "Many of the metrics we routinely track are converging back toward pre-pandemic norms, but the road to get there has been anything but smooth."
Cox Automotive will release October index data Nov. 6, according to its September report. The next quarterly report is scheduled for Jan. 8, 2027, according to the third-quarter report.
