Total loss frequency reached a record 23.1% of all claims in 2025, and 23.9% for non-comprehensive losses, according to CCC Intelligent Solutions' Crash Course 2026 report cited in an April analysis of March pricing data.
Since then, the used-vehicle values that factor into total loss decisions have moved in a less consistent direction than a single month's figures would suggest, based on a review of the wholesale and retail pricing reports published through the year.
Insurers determine a total loss settlement using a vehicle's actual cash value, a figure regulators require to be based on comparable vehicles currently available in the market where the loss vehicle is garaged. Higher used-vehicle values generally raise that threshold, while lower values lower it.
This year, wholesale and retail prices pulled in different directions. Wholesale values decelerated across four straight readings from March through mid-August before reversing. Retail prices, meanwhile, climbed to their highest point in years. Together, the two measures send a more complicated signal than either one alone.
Wholesale values decelerated, then ticked back up
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, Cox Automotive's benchmark for wholesale used-vehicle prices, posted a 6.2% year-over-year gain in March, outpacing the 2% growth Cox Automotive had projected for the full year in its January outlook. That gain steadily narrowed over the following months, slowing to a 2.1% annual increase in June and 1.3% in July, before nearly matching year-ago levels in mid-August, the first time the index had gone flat in months.
By the end of August, the trend reversed slightly, with the index rising 0.4% year over year to a reading of 208.2, according to a Sept. 8 Cox Automotive report.
Retail listing prices climbed to their highest point since 2022
A separate Cox Automotive series tracking retail listing prices, based on vAuto Live Market View data, shows average prices rising from $26,918 in May, up 6% year over year, to $27,239 in August, up 7% year over year and the highest monthly average since December 2022, according to Cox Automotive's August report.
Cox Automotive revised its June and July figures downward as part of that report, putting June at $27,010 and July at $26,999, meaning July's average had actually finished just below $27,000 rather than above it, as the company's original July report had indicated.
A different measure, using CARFAX data rather than Cox Automotive's, found retail used-vehicle prices at approximately $25,500 in mid-April, up about $1,500 in a single month after hitting a 12-month low. The CARFAX figure is a rolling seven-day median, while Cox Automotive's figures are monthly averages, so the two are not directly comparable measures. Both point in the same broad direction, however: retail values recovering and climbing through the year after an earlier decline.
Why the mixed data matters for total loss decisions
The bottom line: The vehicles most affected by the total loss threshold calculation are getting older.
Vehicles between seven and 12 years old represented nearly 41% of total loss valuations in 2025, up from 33.4% in 2020, according to the CCC Crash Course 2026 report. The average age of light vehicles on U.S. roads reached 12.8 years in 2025. CCC's report says there is a strong likelihood it will reach 13 years in 2026, based on S&P Global Mobility data.
New-vehicle prices moved in the same direction as retail used-vehicle prices in August. The average transaction price for a new vehicle in the U.S. moved back above $50,000, according to a Kelley Blue Book analysis Cox Automotive published Sept. 10, a dynamic that continues to push cost-conscious buyers toward the used market and adds pressure to the affordability squeeze already visible in Edmunds' quarterly data.
