New-vehicle sales are on pace to reach their strongest monthly rate of 2026 in July, according to a forecast Cox Automotive published July 27. Collision repair shops follow new-vehicle sales and pricing trends because the vehicles rolling off dealer lots today become the used-car inventory, and eventually the repair volume, that shops will see years down the road.
Cox Automotive's new-vehicle sales forecast projects a seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, of 16.7 million for July, up from June's 16.5 million pace and above last year's July SAAR of 16.6 million. The SAAR is an annualized projection based on the month's sales pace, not a count of vehicles sold during the month. The forecast states the rate would mark "the strongest year to date in 2026."
Sales volume for the month is forecast to reach 1.395 million units, an increase of 1.2% from June but a decline of 0.4% from July 2025, the forecast states. July has 26 selling days this year, the same number as last year and one more than June, Cox Automotive said.
Affluent buyers cited as a key driver
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said in the July forecast that new-vehicle demand has continued despite economic pressures that might otherwise be expected to slow sales.
"July sales are holding up despite significant economic uncertainty," Chesbrough said. "Stubbornly high gas prices — with no relief in sight — and historically weak consumer confidence have not discouraged new-vehicle buyers, as might be expected. The market today is being driven by more affluent buyers, so they may be less impacted by inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty. If the economy and stock market can maintain their current growing but volatile path, vehicle sales will likely follow."
Related trends shops have been tracking
An earlier Autobody News analysis of Cox Automotive's January outlook connected several elements of that forecast to shop-level concerns. That includes the outlook's wholesale-value projections, the volume of off-lease electric vehicles expected to reach used-car lots, and affordability pressure that was pushing older vehicles toward total-loss decisions.
Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive brand, reported in its June transaction-price data that the average price for a new vehicle rose less than 1% year over year to $49,758, an increase of 0.6% from a year earlier, as buyers shifted toward more affordable vehicle segments. The report noted that the industrywide average has remained under the $50,000 mark for the first half of 2026, following a December 2025 peak of $50,609.
An earlier Autobody News analysis of that pricing data also cited the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, Cox Automotive's benchmark for wholesale used-vehicle prices, which posted a 2.1% year-over-year gain in June, a smaller increase than the index had shown in prior months of 2026. That analysis noted shops use the index as one input when insurers calculate total-loss thresholds.
Separately, an earlier Autobody News report cited CCC Intelligent Solutions' Crash Course 2026 report, which found that 23.1% of all claims in 2025 ended in a total loss, the highest share on record, leaving fewer repairable vehicles reaching shop bays.
