New-vehicle retail sales for November 2025 are projected to reach 1,058,500 units, a 4.8% decrease from November 2024, according to a joint forecast released this week by J.D. Power and GlobalData. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total sales is expected to be 15.4 million units, down 1.2 million from the same month last year.
For collision-repair operators, the sales slowdown compounds an already difficult volume picture. Industry data shows total claim counts are down 8.5% year over year through July 2025, with collision and comprehensive claims accounting for nearly 90% of that decline.
An aging fleet pushes more cars past the total-loss threshold
Fewer new vehicles entering the market means the existing fleet continues to age, and older vehicles are far more likely to be written off after a collision. According to Focus Advisors’ mid-year industry review, 74% of total-loss valuations in Q1 2025 were on vehicles seven years or older, up from 70% in 2024. Nearly one in four appraisals now results in a total loss, a trend the firm attributes to rising repair costs, aging fleets, and declining used-vehicle values.
The J.D. Power forecast offers another signal that fleet turnover is slowing. Leases set to expire in December are projected to be nearly 15% lower than the same period in 2024, and 50% lower than in 2023. With fewer consumers cycling out of leased vehicles into new ones, the cars on the road are staying there longer.
Total-loss share hits record highs
The collision-repair math is straightforward: When a vehicle’s market value declines, the repair-cost ceiling declines with it. A fender-bender that would have been a routine fix on a 3-year-old car can easily total a 10-year-old one.
Industry data shows the share of claims flagged as total losses hit a record in 2024 and continue to climb in 2025, with Q2 results showing a 0.8 percentage point increase year over year. Vehicles that are 7 years or older now account for 73% of all total-loss valuations. For shops, the implication is clear: More vehicles are being written off at lower damage levels than they would have been two or three years ago.
"Through the first half of 2024, we noticed that 19.5% of [our] opportunities were rendered total losses," said Gary Wano Jr. of GW & Son Auto Body in Oklahoma City, OK.
Consumers stop filing smaller claims
The decline in repairable volume is not just about total losses; it is also about claims that never get filed in the first place. Industry data shows the share of repairable appraisals for damages of $2,000 or less dropped from 41.5% in 2019 to just 25.5% through June 2025. With higher deductibles and the potential for claim filing to affect insurance rates, consumers are choosing to pay out of pocket or live with the damage.
This discretionary behavior is a direct consequence of financial pressure. The most common deductible of $500 has decreased by six percentage points since 2021, while $1,000 deductibles have risen nearly five points. What used to be an insured repair may now be delayed, self-paid, or ignored entirely.
Wano Jr. shared that customer pay has made up almost 30% of his shop's project count since late 2024. "We have implemented [a process] within the consultation [to determine] how the potential client wants to proceed — discussing repair options, alternative parts, but defining the differences from new OE parts."
EV tax credit expiration distorts the sales picture
The November sales decline is partly a hangover effect. According to J.D. Power, the expiration of federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credits on Sept. 30 prompted many shoppers to accelerate purchases, temporarily inflating sales in August and September. November’s results reflect the pullback.
“November’s results reflect another notable — yet anticipated — decline in the new-vehicle sales pace, driven largely by the pull-ahead of electric vehicle purchases prior to the expiration of federal EV tax credits,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.
Still, the underlying trajectory is clear. Even accounting for month-to-month volatility, new-vehicle sales are not keeping pace with fleet replacement needs.
Shorter backlogs may mask a deeper problem
Some shops may see improving backlog numbers as a positive sign. Wait times have shortened and cycle times have improved compared to the chaotic supply-shortage years of 2021-2022. But much of that improvement stems from the same forces squeezing volume: fewer repairable claims entering the system and more vehicles being totaled out.
Focus Advisors notes that for both single-shop independents and large multi-shop operators (MSOs), the first half of 2025 has been a period of renewed focus on efficiency and disciplined operations. For shop owners accustomed to measuring success by how many weeks out they are booked, declining backlogs may feel like progress, but they also reflect a shrinking pool of repairable work.
The data points in one direction: New-vehicle sales are down, the fleet is aging, total-loss rates are at record highs, and consumers are not filing smaller claims. For collision-repair shops, that adds up to fewer vehicles making it onto the lift, a reality that is unlikely to reverse in the near term.
