Roughly 41% of U.S. vehicles are overdue for at least one major service, according to new CARFAX data released Nov. 18, 2025. The analysis arrives as consumer confidence remains low and economic concerns loom large, resulting in widespread maintenance deferrals across the U.S. fleet.
CARFAX classifies “major services” as brake inspections and replacements, suspension and steering checks, transmission fluid servicing, coolant flushes, and engine or cabin air-filter changes. Nearly 30% of vehicles are behind on tire rotations, and almost 20% have overdue oil changes.
“Taking care of your vehicle pays off in both the short and long term,” said Paul Nadjarian, CARFAX’s chief product officer, in the release.
Deferred maintenance drives crash risk and repair severity
Consumer cost pressures are driving widespread maintenance deferrals across the U.S. fleet. Retail sales for the U.S. automotive aftermarket increased by about 1% in both revenue and demand during the first half of 2025, and analysis from data company Circana shows that consumers are engaging in a mix of DIY and deferral behaviors to manage costs.
The effect reaches collision shops in two ways: higher crash frequency from worn brakes, compromised suspension, and tire issues, as well as an expanded repair scope once damaged vehicles arrive. Although driver error remains the leading cause of crashes, research from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) shows that vehicle maintenance-related defects are the critical factor in approximately 44,000 crashes annually. In 2023, tire-related crashes alone caused nearly 650 deaths.
Shops with mechanical capabilities or strong mechanical partnerships can capture additional work from worn components discovered during disassembly. Documenting preexisting maintenance conditions is essential for negotiating repair scope with insurers, particularly when deferred maintenance has contributed to crash severity.
Aging fleet compounds repair complexity
The average age of vehicles in the U.S. reached 12.8 years in 2025, according to S&P Global Mobility, marking the second consecutive year of a two-month increase in vehicle age. When considered separately, the average age of passenger cars increased to 14.5 years, while light trucks experienced more gradual growth, reaching 11.9 years.
The U.S. vehicle fleet now includes 289 million light vehicles in operation, up 3 million since 2024, with a relatively stable 4.5% scrappage rate, meaning older vehicles are staying on the road longer. Shops face elevated labor rates, increasingly common ADAS calibrations, and higher parts costs — all on vehicles that are more complex and more likely to carry deferred maintenance.
As vehicles reach the six- to 14-year window, they require more frequent maintenance, repairs, and parts replacements, with the 2015-2019 model years now entering this prime age range. Calibration procedures now appear on over 31% of Direct Repair Program (DRP) estimates, reflecting the growing technical demands of modern collision repair.
Vehicles 12 years and older coming in for collision repair are far more likely to reveal worn suspension components, degraded brake systems, and steering assembly issues during disassembly. Shops can look to build this expectation into their estimate planning and supplement their workflows, particularly those operating under OEM certification standards that require complete mechanical integrity alongside collision repair.
With 4 in 10 vehicles arriving likely behind on critical maintenance, shops have an opportunity to position safety inspections as standard practice, expanding repair scope while addressing legitimate vehicle risks.
