November Vehicle Sales Expected to Show Surge

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Sales are forecasted to hit 1.2 million units for the month, on pace for 15.3 million total sales for the year.

Cox Automotive's latest forecast predicted a significant surge in November vehicle sales, reaching an estimated 1.21 million units, marking a 6.5% increase from last year and continuing the trend of improved inventory levels.

This rise in sales volume, coupled with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) nearing 15.3 million, reflects a substantial recovery from last November's 14.3 million pace, though it shows a slight dip from October's 15.5 million level.

"A slight rise in sales volume is expected in November, but the sales pace will decline for the second straight month," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. He noted that despite more discounting and promotion, the sales pace is expected to slow slightly in what is described as a weak buying climate.

The report said new-vehicle inventory levels have significantly improved, reaching 2.4 million at the start of November, an increase of more than 900,000 units from the same period last year. The days' supply climbed to 67, up from 60 at the start of October and higher by 41% compared to November 2022. 

"New-inventory volume continues to improve and is at the highest level since March 2021," Chesbrough added. "Additional inventory is providing more options for buyers still in the market, particularly for larger trucks and SUVs."

Breaking down the sales forecast by segment, compact cars and compact SUVs/crossovers are showing notable year-over-year increases, with compact cars seeing a 25.8% rise and compact SUVs/crossovers a 20.8% increase. Meanwhile, mid-size car sales declined 16.8% compared to last year.

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