U.S. auto sales in March are expected to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.3 million units, according to new estimates from S&P Global Mobility, marking a notable uptick from the 15.5 million SAAR posted in the same month a year ago.
The projected volume of 1.45 million units for the month pushes the first-quarter 2025 average to 16.0 million units, which analysts say may be the year’s peak as looming tariffs on imported vehicles and parts are set to take effect in April.
“Automakers, by way of incentives, and savvy consumers are likely attempting to get ahead of future uncertainty surrounding auto pricing levels by taking advantage of March deals,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “Downside risks to the auto demand and production environment abound as consumers face potential higher auto prices.”
While S&P Global Mobility anticipates sustained but moderate growth in U.S. light vehicle sales throughout 2025, potential tariffs and consumer affordability pressures pose significant risks to future volume estimates.
Electric vehicle trends also continue to show signs of shift. March battery-electric vehicle (BEV) share is projected to reach 8.5%, up from February. This increase reflects market unease as automakers, dealers and consumers navigate evolving BEV incentives and policies.
S&P Global Mobility’s long-term forecast remains positive on BEV development but anticipates volatility in month-to-month figures due to ongoing policy changes and consumer sentiment.
