The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 0.7% from September to 207.4 through Oct. 15 and stood 2.2% above October 2025, according to Cox Automotive’s mid-October report. The index accounts for mix, mileage, and seasonal swings in wholesale used-vehicle prices.
Without those adjustments, wholesale prices dropped 2% from September and were up 0.5% from a year earlier. Unadjusted values usually decline about 1.5% over the full month of October, Cox Automotive said.
Jonathan Gregory, the company’s senior director of economic and industry insights, attributed much of the index’s annual increase to an unusually weak October 2025, which made this year’s comparison easier.
Cox Automotive points to tighter supply
Wholesale days’ supply fell to 28.2 days as of Oct. 15, down from 28.7 at the end of September. That narrowed the year-over-year gap from 2.5 days to about one day. Dealer demand held roughly flat, Gregory said. Sales conversion averaged 54.3%, up 0.3 points from a year earlier.
“The firmer values reflect leaner inventory rather than stronger buying, a more stable footing, but not a buyer-driven recovery,” Gregory said.
The mid-month reading comes after September data in which the index dropped below year-ago levels for the first time in 2026. At that point Cox Automotive cut its year-end projection to a 0.2% gain. Gregory said the early October gains cannot erase a soft third quarter, pointing to higher rates and weaker sentiment as pressures that remain.
Why wholesale values matter in total loss decisions
Total loss settlements rest on actual cash value, which regulators require to reflect comparable vehicles for sale where the damaged vehicle is garaged. When used-vehicle values rise, the repair cost needed to total a vehicle generally rises with them, and the reverse holds when values fall, as a September review of 2026 pricing data explained.
Total losses made up a record 23.5% of claims through the second quarter of 2026 with every loss category combined, up 0.8 percentage points from a year earlier, according to CCC Intelligent Solutions’ Crash Course 2026 Mid-Year Update, released Oct. 15.
EVs give back some ground
Cox Automotive’s index of electric vehicle values was 6.8% above a year earlier but slipped 0.7% from September. The non-EV index rose 0.7% from September and was up 1.3% year over year. Gregory said EV gains are slowing as more off-lease units enter the market.
By segment, compact cars were up 5.6% from a year earlier and midsize cars turned positive. Luxury vehicles slipped slightly below last year’s level, and pickups stayed soft.
Financing costs and fuel prices stay elevated
Interest paid over the life of a typical loan now totals about $10,100 on a new vehicle and $10,900 on a used one, up 79% and 96% from 2019, according to Cox Automotive’s Oct. 26 Auto Market Weekly Summary. Including financing, the all-in cost of buying a vehicle has risen 37% for new vehicles and 43% for used vehicles since 2019. Vehicle prices alone have risen about 30% over that period.
Gas prices have stayed at or above $4.30 a gallon so far in October, according to the summary. Once fuel purchases are excluded, consumer spending is roughly level with a year ago, its weakest showing since November 2025, according to Bloomberg data cited by Cox Automotive.
Cox Automotive will publish its new-vehicle sales forecast Oct. 27, and the Federal Reserve meets this week. The full October Manheim index is due Nov. 6, according to Cox Automotive. The data also lands as shops prepare for a winter forecast to bring a strong El Niño.
Lisa McArdle