The U.S. new-vehicle market is showing signs of cooling after a spring sales surge, with June sales projected to decline more than 6% from last year and 15% from May, according to a forecast released by Cox Automotive.
Despite this slowdown, Q2 2025 sales are expected to be up 1.7% compared to Q2 2024, totaling approximately 4.18 million vehicles.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for June is forecast to fall to 15.3 million, a drop from May’s 15.6 million pace and significantly below the March-April average of 17.5 million. Cox Automotive cited fewer selling days — 24 in June compared to 27 in May and 26 last year — as one factor contributing to the decline.
"The sales forecast is showing a cooler market in June, as consumers face tighter inventory levels and reluctance on the part of most dealers to add big discounts," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “Much of the pull-ahead demand that fired up sales in April and May has now been satiated, so consumer demand is expected to be weaker in the coming months.”
Cox Automotive adjusted its full-year forecast slightly upward to 15.7 million units, up from its previous estimate of 15.6 million but still below the 2024 result and well under the original 2025 forecast of 16.3 million. Analysts expect rising prices, driven by tariffed inventory replacing existing stock, to further dampen sales through the rest of the year.
General Motors is forecasted to emerge as the top performer in the first half of 2025, with sales projected to exceed 1.4 million units, marking a more than 12% year-over-year increase. “Double-digit growth across all GM brands fueled the success,” Chesbrough said.
Other high-volume automakers are expected to have also gained share, including Toyota, Ford, Hyundai and Honda. Smaller or niche brands, however, are expected to struggle to maintain market position amid intensified competition and shifting consumer priorities.
