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John Yoswick

John YoswickJohn Yoswick is a freelance automotive writer based in Portland, Oregon, who has been writing about the collision industry since 1988. He is the editor of the weekly CRASH Network (for a free 4-week trial subscription, visit www.CrashNetwork.com).


He can be contacted at john@crashnetwork.com 

Tuesday, 01 December 2020 23:03

Driving Has Largely Rebounded, but Traffic Congestion, Resulting Claims Have Not

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CCC Information Services reports claims being down nationally almost 22% year-to-date this fall, but individual states' results range from a 31% decline in North Dakota to an 8% uptick in Louisiana. CCC Information Services reports claims being down nationally almost 22% year-to-date this fall, but individual states' results range from a 31% decline in North Dakota to an 8% uptick in Louisiana.

Index

...$3,297, up $156, just shy of 5%, compared to the same period a year earlier, and up $487---more than 17%---for the same 12-month period ending in 2016.

 

That’s based in part on a more than 2% rise in non-drivable vehicles after higher-speed crashes made possible by less vehicle traffic, she said, along with increases in the cost of parts and higher costs in the “miscellaneous/sublet” category, “which is where a lot of the fees associated with scanning and calibrations are appearing.”

 

A line item for scanning was included on 41% of appraisals in the first quarter of this year, she said, compared to just 3.3% in the same period in 2017. The average fee for scans across appraisals that include them is $126, she said.

 

Looking at DRP claims only, shops in the second quarter of this year averaged 3.5 labor hours per day on drivable vehicles and 2.9 hours on non-drivable vehicles; that was up from 3.3 labor hours on drivable vehicles and 2.8 hours for non-drivable for the same period in 2019, but down slightly from 3.6 labor hours for drivable and 3 hours for non-drivable in 2018.

 

Fewer repairs in shops in the second quarter also led to improved cycle time, Gotsch said; from “vehicle in” to “vehicle out,” cycle time fell to an average of 9.1 days, down nearly a half-day from the previous quarter, and down from 9.7 days in the second quarter of 2019.

 

For the 12 months ending with the third quarter of this year, 60.5% of claims had supplements, up from 55.8% a year earlier and up from 52.9% for the 12-month period ending in 2018, and those supplements accounted for 18.7% of the total cost of repairs, up from 18.1% and 16.9% in the two prior years.

 

The percentage of vehicles declared total losses has continued to increase, despite a rise in used vehicle pricing this year.

 

“We’re now at a point where roughly 22% of all non-comprehensive appraisals are being flagged as total loss, which is a substantial increase considering that even 15 years ago, only about 10% of all vehicles were flagged as total loss,” Gotsch said.

 

That is likely to rise even higher next year, she said, given the expected 15% decline in new vehicle sales this year.

 

“The vehicle fleet will continue to shift older for the next several years,” Gotsch said. “Many fewer vehicles were purchased [this year] by fleets, which ultimately supplies the used vehicle market, and that will help keep used vehicle prices elevated, but as repair costs continue to rise and may outpace that, that will continue to push up the total loss frequency.”


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