...remained down about 24%, year-to-date, in early November. But there is a broad range of market variation in that statistic.
Gotsch’s data shows the Phoenix market, for example, was down just 18%, year-to-date, as of November; Atlanta, Charlotte and the Riverside-San Bernardino area in California all had claims counts down less than 23%.
At the other end of the spectrum, hardest hit among large markets are Washington, D.C., San Francisco, Seattle and Boston, where claims are down between 31% and 33%.
The good news for shops is their volume of repair orders is not that far below normal, Gotsch said.
In the middle week of March, shops in states with minor restrictions saw repair order volume dip by 17.5% compared to the same week in 2019, followed by a week with a 22% decline from the preceding year. The stats were even worse for shops in states with major COVID-related restrictions, where repair order volume was down by 24% and 30% in those same weeks in March.
By late October, however, repair order volume had rebounded to being down about 10% compared to the same period last year.
“With overall volumes continuing to be down slightly, we do expect that in 2021, claims counts and repair order counts will be much better than they were in 2020,” Gotsch said. “But we do expect overall volume will be less in 2021 than it was in 2019.”
Gotsch shared a variety of other statistics during her presentation during the MSO Symposium.
Cost of repairs, she said, has been up year-over-year in every month this year through September. For the 12 months ending the third quarter of this year, the average total cost of repairs was...