Thursday, 07 October 2021 17:19

Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Hit Record High Amid New-Vehicle Inventory Shortages


...lagged the overall market. On a month-over-month basis, no segment saw declines.


High Prices and Inventory Challenges Lead to Falling Sales


According to Cox Automotive estimates, total used vehicle sales were down 13% year over year in September. We estimate the September used SAAR to be 36 million, down from 40.9 million last September and down compared to August's 36.5 million SAAR. The September used retail SAAR estimate is 19.5 million, down from 21.7 million last year and flat month over month.


Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days' supply based on vAuto data, used retail supply peaked at 114 days on April 8, 2020. Normal used retail supply is about 44 days' supply. It ended September at 37 days, below normal levels. Wholesale supply peaked at an estimated 149 days on April 9, 2020, when normal supply is 23. It ended September at 18 days.


September total new-vehicle sales were down 25% year over year, with the same number of selling days compared to September 2020. Month over month, September new-vehicle sales were down 7%. The September SAAR came in at 12.2 million, a decrease from last year's 16.3 million and September 2019's 17.2 million rate.


Combined sales into large rental, commercial and government buyers were down 21% year over year in September. Sales into rental decreased 17% year over year in September and are up 6% compared to the same period last year.


Commercial sales are down 18% year over year in September and are up 13% year-to-date 2021 versus 2020.


Remaining retail sales were down an estimated 23% year over year in September, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 10.7 million. This is down from...

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