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Tuesday, 23 February 2021 23:52

Cox Automotive February Forecast: U.S. Auto Sales Remain Relatively Strong Despite Challenges

Index

...15.7 million sales in 2021, up from 14.5 million in last year.

 

February 2021 Sales Forecast Highlights

 

In February, new light-vehicle sales are forecast to fall nearly 128,000 units, or 9.4% compared to February 2020. When compared to last month, sales are expected to rise nearly 12%. When seasonally adjusted for two fewer selling days, the year-over-year decline is closer to 3%.

 

The SAAR in February 2021 is forecast to be 16.3 million, below last year's 16.8 million level, and a mild decrease from last month's 16.6 million pace.

 

Auto Sales Should Catch Up as Texas Thaws

 

One key storyline in February will be sales volumes of pickup trucks and large SUVs. Hard-hit Texas accounts for an outsized proportion of sales in those segments, which will negatively impact the numbers for Chevrolet, Ford, GMC and RAM this month.

 

As noted in a post last week in the Cox Automotive Newsroom, the auto market should recover quickly from the short-term impact of a mid-month weather event, although the situation in Texas has grown beyond just a weather event. Longer-term issues---damaged infrastructure, a lack of water in some markets---could depress the big Texas market for days to come.

 

If there's a silver lining to be found, we'd look no further than Ford Motor Company. Notes Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Michelle Krebs, "When Texans were out of power, the nation started seeing stories of owners of the all-new Ford F-150 pickup using their on-board generators to power their houses. That was marketing gold for Ford, as it perfectly fits their Build Ford Tough image. Ford has been battling some negative news lately on quality and recalls, so I am sure the good news was welcome indeed."

 

Source: Cox Automotive

 

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