Tuesday, 04 August 2020 21:01

Reservation Numbers Reveal Rivian R1T Has 30,000 Buyers Waiting

Written by Gustavo Henrique Ruffo, Inside EVs


This article starts with a big "thank you" to readers of Inside EVs.

We asked them to tell us their reservation numbers for the Rivian R1T and R1S after a video from Detached Garage showed us how to obtain it. We thought we'd have a hard task getting the real amount of preorders, but that was spared, thanks to Skyler Williams and John King.


The answer is not 43. It is approximately 30,000, even if the reservation numbers are now around 56,000. How?


Williams was the one who discovered the method for getting the reservation order number. He posted it on a thread at RivianForums.com on July 28, and also on Facebook. King made some engaging projections based on the numbers they obtained from other forum members.


The explanation for the real numbers is something Williams observed from the numbers he managed to get: some jumps in the numbers that were not natural.


“The reservations jump from 20,000 to almost 40,000 between Dec. 22 and Dec. 26, 2019. No way it could have been legitimate," Williams said. "There was another 5,000 jump in May in a matter of just a few days. There's a chance these jumps were due to order ‘edits,’ but I am not certain of the exact cause.


"The interesting thing, and the reason I know the jumps are artificial, is that the numbers of the jumps correspond to the number of orders taken before them, i.e. 19,000 orders before December 2019, and 5,000 orders from December 2019 to May 2020. Definitely no coincidence.”


The first people to reserve their Rivian cars were apprehensive because they would not be the very first to receive their EVs, but that may have to do with the Shopify reservation system.


“Rivian used Shopify for the preorders," Willaism said. "It is standard for Shopify to start order numbers at 1,000.”


Williams has a formula for people who want to know where they are on the waiting list: if your preorder number is below 21,000, subtract 1,000; if it is above 21,000 and below 45,000, subtract 20,000. If it is above 50,000, subtract 25,000. 


The 21,000 milestone was achieved before Dec. 26, 2019. Numbers around 45,000 showed up by late May, and we are now at about 56,000. That explains the 30,000 preorders Williams believes Rivian has.


King helped ease anxiety among reservation holders. He made timetables showing when the current reservations will get their cars based on the projected production of Rivian.

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