During the 1970s, an author named Max Gunther interviewed dozens of people, especially psychiatrists, gamblers, investors, astrologers and others who had an interest in “luck.” He was writing a book he called “The Luck Factor,” in which he presented the stories of the very lucky and the very unlucky. He found five traits and patterns of behavior that characterized the lucky and were conspicuously lacking in the unlucky.

        Perhaps the characteristic that you would think most unlikely to be included, he called “The Pessimism Paradox.” One professional Las Vegas gambler he interviewed put it succinctly: “Don’t think about winning until you’ve made yourself ready to lose.” After his many interviews, Gunther says: “Lucky people, as a rule… nurture a basic core of pessimism so dense and tough and prickly that it startles you when you first come upon it.” One famous investor said: “On the stock market, optimism can kill you!”

        The same may be said of shop owners who take big risks when the probability of winning is no greater than the possibility of losing. A study of bad risk bus drivers who had more than a normal share of accidents found that they were overly optimistic with too much faith in their own skills, believing that other drivers would be sensible, and an over-reliance on luck! Some of the accident-prone drivers were highly superstitious.

Most marketing is risky

Probably the least certain of all things one can predict is human behavior. Who would have thought so many people would buy a “pet rock?” Or that a tattoo parlor would be a good business today? I’ve observed many shop owners who spent significant sums on promotional schemes: billboards, radio and TV ads, mailings and more that cost thousands of dollars but brought in very little – if any – business.

        I’ve seen bills for Yellow Page ads well over a thousand dollars. Do you really get work from the Yellow Pages? I’ve also seen body shop ads in all kinds of obscure publications. Can’t you see it now. The guy just got rear-ended by a semi-truck. He says, “Now where did I put that copy of Women’s Wear Weekly that had that ad for a good body shop?” Give me a break. Who checks ads when they need collision repair? Maybe one in a thousand if that!

        Marketing is a lot like fishing. You put the worm on the hook and throw it in the water hoping some fish will notice it. In a world where people are bombarded with endless commercials and ads all day long, the odds are far worse than gambling in Las Vegas.

Rules to reduce the risk

        There are a few common sense guidelines that a smart shop owner should observe. The first is the simplest of all: promoting to someone who knows you will always be more effective than promoting to a stranger. This tells you that your most effective promotion will be to your past customers (provided you did good work for them the first time around).

        The second is nearly as obvious: promoting to someone you know actually needs your services will be more effective than a shotgun approach just promoting to everyone. This tells you that you have a better chance of getting a job if you put your promotional message right on damaged vehicles. Or that you somehow manage to get police, attorney or court notifications of vehicles that have just been in an accident so you can directly contact the vehicle owner.

        From there on down it gets more and more uncertain. Your next best chance is promoting to people who are contacted when someone has an accident. That’s why shop owners try to strike a deal with tow-truck drivers, insurance agents, fleet managers and even mechanics who people trust with their vehicle and who they might contact when they have an accident.